What Comes Next?

While all of us look expectantly on TV or the newspapers every morning for signs that the pandemic is weakening, I wonder if anyone is looking ahead to what I would call the ‘recovery’ period.  I think what most people are thinking is that when the death rates go down and hospitals seem to be thinning out a bit, there will be this automatic rush to pick up where we left off before the fear set in.  I am not sure that is going to happen.

What I think will happen instead is going to be a prolonged period of very tentative re-emergence from the lockdown.  When the pressure eases, do you think everyone will simply emerge and go about their business as usual?  I truly doubt it.  I certainly won’t. There is no plan for universal testing—in fact we have been lied to so much about the availability of testing, why would we emerge without the confidence to identify where all new cases are coming from?  Without the ability to fully analyze the risk and trends with comprehensive testing, I will be very tentative about un-distancing.  At the first and slightest uptick in the number of cases of Covid 19, we will all retreat immediately to our homes again.  This kind of fear does not evaporate overnight.  Imminent death dampens any rush to freedom from self-isolation.

What I fear most is a very slow recovery that will be fraught with the underlying fear of relapse.  This is going to result in a much slower economic recovery.  That will be a disaster for small businesses.  In fact, the relief that everyone is expecting from the SBA relief funds is already depressingly slower in arriving than we expected.    The ‘immediate’ relief touted by the Trump administration is still not here, and won’t be for weeks, perhaps months.  Many businesses exist like the majority of individual Americans—from paycheck to paycheck.  I am guessing that by the time the SBA disaster loans arrive, it will be too late for 50% or more of existing small businesses.  They will be gone and so will the jobs attached to them. 

And the much touted individual relief from the $1200 check promised by the government probably won’t arrive for many workers for 3-5 months.  What are they supposed to do in the meantime, sing the Jeopardy Theme Song?   State unemployment relief is a shambles.  Websites and disbursement mechanisms are crashing and unable to serve their constituents.  We are going to see real economic hardship on the faces of much of our citizenry over the next 3-6 months….hardship that our country has not experienced since the Depression of the 1930s.

Then there is the prospect of societal unrest.  What do you think will happen when we have 40% unemployment and families that cannot pay the rent or buy food?

Next, take a look at the orange man who arrives uninvited into our living rooms every night with his reality show about himself and how we should all congratulate him for the marvelous job he is doing.  I hope the people who think he is so wonderful are smart enough to remember when it comes time to vote (that is, if we have an election) that the reason so many got sick and died was because he completely failed to prepare the country for this disaster.  He would rather blame it all on Obama.  His cadre of appointees and sycophantic Republican supporters will have left us a mess if he is defeated in November.  It will take years to undo the damage their time in office has wrought.

Perfect example:  The Republicans in Wisconsin wouldn’t let the Democratic Governor postpone the primary election yesterday because  a) they counted on reduced voter turnout to advantage incumbent Republicans; and b) they would rather risk poll workers and voters lives to gain advantage in an election where their strategy was to depress voter participation to insure retention of an arch conservative Wisconsin supreme court candidate.  The concept that Republicans are willing to sacrifice voter’s lives to further their quest for power is frightening and evil…. Those people are evil! 

In fact, there are so many evil people who are in government now that I am not hopeful for anything like intelligent planning……  And that includes plans for the November general election?  President Trump is not in favor of mail in voting.  Why?  Why do you think that is?--  perhaps because Donald Trump is so concerned that Covid 19 can be transmitted through the mail??--I think NOT!---maybe he should pour some liquid hydroxychloroquine into all the mailboxes in America!

Or maybe he wants to do everything he can to disenfranchise as many voters as he can.  That’s the only way he can be re-elected…..God Bless America!

If concerned rational democrats don’t start pushing really hard for a plan to accomplish a secure voter-mail-in election mechanism, we will face the coup-de-gras to our democracy.    Perhaps our only hope is Andrew Cuomo!

Ah well, maybe I am just having a ‘down’ day.  I will try to be a bit more optimistic in my next blog! 

Sleep well, everyone!